2026 China–US Tariff Panorama: The Total Number, Layer by Layer

The layer cake: four charges that stack on Chinese imports

Every Chinese product entering the US runs through the same four questions. Most people stop after question one and quote a number that's 7.5 to 25 points too low.

1. MFN base rate. The standard US tariff on that HTS code, applied to all WTO members without a preferential FTA rate. China's MFN status has not been revoked (despite periodic legislative proposals to do so), so Chinese goods get the same base rate as goods from Germany, Japan, or Brazil. Most industrial products land between 0% and 8%, with a few outliers above 15%.
2. Section 301. Additional duties imposed specifically on Chinese-origin goods under USTR's finding that China's intellectual property practices and technology-transfer policies are unreasonable and burden US commerce. These are the 7.5% and 25% numbers everyone talks about. They apply to virtually every HTS code on the four Section 301 lists, with narrow product-specific exclusions.
3. Anti-dumping / countervailing duties (AD/CVD). Factory-specific penalty deposits imposed when the Department of Commerce finds that a Chinese product is being sold below fair value (dumping) or with countervailable subsidies. Unlike the MFN and Section 301 rates, which are the same for all Chinese exporters of a given HTS code, AD/CVD rates vary by factory. Two Chinese brake-rotor factories making the identical product can face AD margins of 3% and 94% respectively depending on whether they cooperated with Commerce's investigation.
4. Section 232 (steel/aluminum). 25% on steel articles and 10% on aluminum articles imported under specific HTS chapters, imposed on national-security grounds in 2018. These are not China-specific — they apply globally unless a country has a negotiated exemption or tariff-rate quota. For China, the Section 232 duties generally pile on top of everything else. Finished assemblies with incidental steel content (a brake caliper, an engine) are usually not caught; raw steel billet, hot-rolled coil, or simple stampings are.

The total effective rate on a Chinese import is the sum of whichever of these four layers apply. For most consumer goods, it's MFN + Section 301 (no AD/CVD, no 232). For industrial metal products, it can be all four. The table below shows the real numbers.

Product-by-product: what you actually pay, mid-2026

These are representative rates for the most commonly imported Chinese goods in each category. The "Total" column is the rate on your CBP Form 7501, assuming no active exclusion and no AD/CVD (AD/CVD is noted separately where it commonly applies).

Three things jump out. First, the spread from the cheapest to most expensive category is roughly 0% (ITA phones) to ~57% (Chinese steel with all four layers). Same origin, same trade lane, a 57-point gap driven entirely by what the product is. Second, the MFN base rate is almost never the number you pay — Section 301 dominates for industrial goods. Third, the two products most people worry about (consumer electronics and apparel) are at opposite ends of the spectrum: phones near zero, apparel up to 29.5%. If someone tells you "China tariffs are 25%," ask them which China tariffs.

Section 301 explained — the four lists, in plain English

The USTR's Section 301 action against China was announced in four stages between 2018 and 2019. Each "list" is a set of HTS codes, and each list carries its own surcharge rate. Here's what matters for importers in 2026:

• List 1 — 25%, no changes since 2018. Covers industrial goods: machinery, engines, electrical equipment, auto parts, medical devices, and certain electronics components including PCBs and networking gear. This is the list that hits Chinese industrial machinery, auto parts, and bare electronics components the hardest. The 25% rate has never been reduced, and USTR has given no indication it will be.
• List 2 — 25%, no changes. Covers plastics, chemicals, rubber goods, and some metals. Plastics articles from China (Chapter 39) are caught here, which is why the effective rate on Chinese plastic goods is often 25–32% once you add the 6.5% MFN base.
• List 3 — originally 25%, reduced to 7.5% under the Phase One deal (2020), held at 7.5% ever since. This is the big consumer-goods list: apparel and textiles, footwear, furniture, toys, home goods, and most finished consumer products. The 7.5% rate is fragile — it exists because the Phase One agreement has not been formally terminated, but USTR has signaled repeatedly that a return to 25% is under active consideration. If you sell Chinese consumer goods to the US market, build your model at both 7.5% and 25% and see which one your margins survive. For the full history, see Section 301 China Tariffs Guide.
• List 4A — 15%, suspended indefinitely. Would have covered phones, laptops, toys, and footwear — essentially all remaining consumer goods not on earlier lists. Was announced but never imposed, and the suspension has held for six years. For importers of ITA-covered electronics (phones, laptops), List 4A's suspension is the only reason the effective rate is 0% instead of 15%. If List 4A were ever unsuspended, it would be the single most consequential tariff change for the consumer electronics trade since the ITA itself.
• List 4B — never imposed. Covered a handful of additional codes. Functionally irrelevant in 2026.

The key strategic fact for importers: Lists 1 and 2 at 25% are settled policy and unlikely to change without major legislation or a Phase Two trade deal (neither of which appears imminent). List 3 at 7.5% is the volatile one — it was reduced as part of a deal that is now widely considered ineffective, and its future depends on the outcome of the ongoing USTR exclusion review and broader US-China trade policy. If you're importing List 3 goods (apparel, furniture, plastics articles), the policy risk is asymmetrically large.

The de minimis cliff: $800 was always too good to last

For years, Section 321 was the quiet cheat code for Chinese imports. A shipment valued at $800 or less per person per day entered the US with zero duty, zero tax, and zero MPF — regardless of what product it was or where it came from. A $799 dress from a Chinese factory paid nothing; a $12,000 container of the same dresses paid the full freight. The economic incentive to structure shipments under $800 was enormous, and CBP spent years watching it happen.

In 2025–2026, the landscape changed. The blanket $800 exemption was narrowed, and the rules now depend on origin and product type rather than a simple dollar threshold. The details are moving fast — the 2026 Section 321 reform page tracks the latest — but the practical takeaway for most Chinese-goods importers is that de minimis is no longer a reliable strategy for commercial shipments. Budget for duty, and treat any de minimis clearance as a temporary bonus rather than an entitlement.

What has not changed: CBP's Section 321 data-pilot program (Entry Type 86) is still the electronic filing mechanism for de minimis shipments, and it processes millions of entries daily. The infrastructure exists. The question is which goods qualify. For the most current threshold, check the Global De Minimis Guide and the Cliff Detector, which cross-references your shipment value against de minimis rules across 7 markets simultaneously.

Anti-dumping and countervailing duties: where the rate breaks 40%

The rate table above shows the MFN + 301 total. For several product categories, anti-dumping and countervailing duties add a third layer that can double the effective rate. These are the most consequential AD/CVD orders affecting Chinese imports to the US, organized by product:

• Wooden bedroom furniture (A-570-890). The big one. AD margins: 0% for cooperating factories, 216% for the China-wide entity rate. In effect since 2005, reviewed annually, and aggressively enforced. If you're importing Chinese wooden bedroom furniture, this AD order defines your landed cost far more than the 7.5% Section 301 surcharge. See China → US Furniture for the calculator and AD primer.
• Brake rotors (A-570-846). Chinese cast-iron brake rotors: AD margins from 0% (cooperating) to 43.5% (non-cooperating). CVD margins add another 6–12%. On a $10,000 shipment of brake rotors, the AD deposit alone could be $4,350 — and that's before the 2.5% MFN and 25% Section 301.
• Tapered roller bearings (A-570-601). Chinese bearings: AD margins from 0% to 92.8%. This order covers a narrow set of HTS subheadings within 8482, but if your Chinese bearings fall under it, the AD math dominates everything else.
• Aluminum extrusions (A-570-967 / C-570-968). Chinese extruded aluminum products: AD margins 0–374% in extreme cases. CVD adds another 14–374%. These numbers sound absurd, but they're real — the China-wide non-cooperating entity rate for aluminum extrusions is one of the highest in Commerce's AD/CVD inventory.
• Steel nails, wire rod, pipe, and tube. Multiple AD/CVD orders across various steel product categories. Too many to list individually; search the ITA's AD/CVD database by your specific HTS code before sourcing Chinese steel products. The AD orders layer on top of the 25% Section 232 steel tariff and the 25% Section 301, which together already push Chinese steel over 50%.

The AD/CVD system operates on a different logic from regular tariff rates. AD/CVD deposits are collected at entry as cash deposits, held by CBP, and only finalized when Commerce completes its annual administrative review — which can take two to three years. If the final rate is lower than the deposit, the difference is refunded with interest. If it's higher, the importer pays the difference. The practical reality: most importers treat the deposit as a cost and don't count on a refund. If a refund comes, it's upside. If it doesn't, the model was built assuming it wouldn't.

One more thing worth knowing: anti-dumping orders attach to the exporter, not just the product. If Factory A has a 0% AD rate and Factory B has a 45% AD rate, you can buy from Factory A and pay the MFN + 301 rate with no AD deposit at all. The AD rate is factory-specific, not country-wide (the "China-wide entity rate" applies only to exporters who did not cooperate with Commerce's investigation). This is why experienced Chinese-goods importers verify their factory's AD status before placing the purchase order — a 45-point swing on the same product from a different factory a few kilometers away changes the profitability of the entire shipment.

The exclusion landscape: what's available, and what isn't

Since 2018, USTR has operated an exclusion process for Section 301 tariffs. Importers can request that a specific 10-digit HTS code be excluded from the Section 301 surcharge, typically on grounds that the product is not available from non-Chinese sources or that the tariff causes disproportionate economic harm. Thousands of exclusions have been granted, and thousands more have been denied. Most exclusions are temporary — 12 to 18 months — and many that were granted and later expired were not renewed.

What's covered in mid-2026: active exclusions are concentrated in medical supplies (PPE, certain medical devices), a narrow set of electronics components, and specific industrial inputs where domestic production capacity doesn't exist. Consumer goods exclusions are rare and getting rarer — USTR's general posture since the Phase One deal has been to narrow the exclusion program rather than expand it.

What's under review: USTR announced a comprehensive exclusion review for Q3 2026 covering several hundred HTS codes. The outcome is uncertain, but the review itself signals that at least some changes to the exclusion list are coming. The Section 301 guide tracks the current exclusion list and the status of pending reviews.

The practical advice for importers: check the USTR exclusion portal for your specific 10-digit code before you quote a landed cost. An active exclusion on a List 1 product reduces the rate from 27.5% (2.5% MFN + 25% 301) to 2.5% — a 25-point swing that determines whether the product is sourceable from China at all. If no exclusion exists, assume the full Section 301 rate applies. Exclusions are not granted retroactively, so you can't claim one on a shipment that already cleared.

Section 232: steel and aluminum — a global tariff that China can't avoid

Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 allows the President to impose tariffs on national-security grounds. In 2018, the administration imposed 25% on steel articles and 10% on aluminum articles from most countries. These tariffs are global — they apply to all origins unless a country negotiated an exemption (Canada, Mexico under USMCA; Australia; Argentina and Brazil under quota arrangements) or a tariff-rate quota (EU, UK, Japan, Korea). China has no exemption and no TRQ for steel or aluminum. Chinese steel and aluminum articles pay the full Section 232 surcharge.

When Section 232 applies, it layers on top of MFN and Section 301. A Chinese steel pipe under HTS Chapter 73 that would otherwise pay 2.5% MFN + 25% Section 301 = 27.5% instead pays 2.5% + 25% + 25% = roughly 52.5% effective (the calculation is sequential — 25% on the MFN-inclusive value, then another 25% — so the total lands slightly above simple addition, but 52–57% is the right ballpark for most steel product subheadings).

The bright line: Section 232 applies to articles of steel or aluminum, not to products that contain steel or aluminum. A Chinese brake caliper contains cast iron and steel but is classified under 8708.30 as a brake part, not under Chapter 73 as a steel article — so it pays MFN + 301 only, no 232. A Chinese steel I-beam classified under 7216 pays all three layers. The classification boundary is at the HTS chapter level, not the material content level, and it's one of the more important distinctions a competent customs broker makes on your behalf.

The Mexico question: nearshoring is real, but it's not a loophole

The Chinese tariff stack has driven a significant share of US-bound manufacturing to Mexico. The logic is straightforward: a Chinese auto part at 27.5% effective vs a Mexican auto part at 0% under USMCA. The 27.5-point gap more than covers the labor-cost difference for many product categories. The Guanajuato, Nuevo León, and Aguascalientes automotive and industrial clusters have absorbed billions in redirected investment as a result.

But the geography of trade is sometimes misleading. A Chinese-owned factory in Mexico producing parts from Chinese-origin steel and Chinese-made subcomponents, then finishing and assembling them in Mexico, can generate a USMCA-origin product if the assembly in Mexico crosses the substantial-transformation threshold. The rules are technical — regional value content, tariff shift, specific manufacturing process requirements — and CBP's enforcement posture on potential transshipment through Mexico has tightened considerably since 2023. A product that is merely inspected, repacked, or lightly processed in Mexico does not become Mexican origin and does not shed the Chinese tariff stack.

For importers evaluating the China-vs-Mexico sourcing decision, the IMMEX Nearshoring guide covers the IMMEX program, the USMCA origin rules, and the landed cost math in detail. The short version: nearshoring works when the manufacturing process in Mexico is real — stamping, welding, assembly, testing — not when it's a box-swap. CBP's increased audits of Mexican-origin claims in 2024–2026 mean the distinction matters more than ever.

How to calculate your real rate — a worked example

Here's a concrete example to pull the layers together. Take a hypothetical shipment:

• Product: 500 units of CNC-machined aluminum pump housings for industrial water pumps
• HTS classification: 8413.91.9080 (parts of pumps, Chapter 84)
• MFN base rate: 0% (many pump parts are duty-free)
• Section 301: List 1, 25%
• Section 232 aluminum: Does not apply — the article is classified under Chapter 84 (machinery), not Chapter 76 (aluminum). The aluminum content is incidental to the classification.
• AD/CVD: No specific AD/CVD order covers this subheading
• Goods value (FOB Shanghai): $25,000
• Ocean freight + insurance to Long Beach: $1,200
• CIF value (entered value for customs): $26,200

Duty calculation: $26,200 × 25% (Section 301 only, MFN is 0%) = $6,550. Merchandise Processing Fee: $26,200 × 0.3464% = $90.76. Harbor Maintenance Fee (ocean freight, 0.125%): $32.75. Total customs cost: $6,673.51. Landed cost: $26,200 + $6,673.51 = $32,873.51. Effective rate: 25.5% on CIF. The supplier's invoice said $25,000. Your actual cost to get those pump housings into your US warehouse: almost $33,000 — 31% above the supplier price. That's the difference between FOB and landed, and it's the number your margin model needs.

Now change one variable: the pump housings are machined in Taiwan instead of China, using the same aluminum stock. Section 301 drops off entirely — it only applies to Chinese-origin goods. Duty: $26,200 × 0% = $0. MPF: $90.76. HMF: $32.75. Total customs: $123.51. Landed: $26,323.51. The origin change saves $6,550 in duty. Same part, same process, different factory location. That 25-point spread is why the supply chain has been slowly migrating out of China for seven years — and why knowing your product's Section 301 list is worth $6,550 on a single container.

Run your own numbers on the Landed Cost Calculator or use the corridor-specific calculators on each China→US product page: Electronics, Apparel, Furniture, Machinery, Plastics.

What to watch, Q3 2026 and beyond

The China–US tariff landscape is not static. Here's what could change the numbers in the table above over the next 12 months:

• USTR Section 301 exclusion review. The comprehensive review announced for Q3 2026 could grant new exclusions, restore expired ones, or narrow the program further. If your product's 10-digit code has an active exclusion, flag it — expirations usually don't give much warning, and a lapsed exclusion means the full Section 301 rate kicks in on the next entry.
• List 3 restoration to 25%. The 7.5% rate on apparel, furniture, toys, and other consumer goods exists at USTR's discretion. The Phase One deal's enforcement mechanism is effectively dead, and the political consensus for keeping consumer-goods tariffs low is weaker than it was. A restoration to 25% would be the single largest tariff action on Chinese goods since 2018 and would immediately reprice the entire consumer-goods import supply chain.
• De minimis reform — Section 321 narrowing. CBP's T86 program processes millions of low-value entries daily, and the political pressure to narrow the de minimis exemption for Chinese goods is bipartisan. The 2026 reform page tracks the latest. But budget as if the exemption doesn't exist — it's the safer bet right now.
• New AD/CVD investigations. Commerce opens new anti-dumping and countervailing-duty investigations regularly. If you're importing a Chinese product at scale and it's not yet subject to AD/CVD, it might be next — especially in metal-intensive categories where Chinese overcapacity is a known concern. Subscribe to the ITA's Federal Register notices or have your broker flag new investigations that cover your HTS codes.
• MFN revocation proposals. Legislation to revoke China's permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status has been introduced in multiple Congresses and has never passed, but the proposal keeps resurfacing. If it ever passed, China's MFN base rates would be replaced by Column 2 rates (the Smoot-Hawley-era schedule, which runs 30–60% on most goods). The probability is low, but the impact would be catastrophic — an order of magnitude larger than any Section 301 change. Know your exposure so you're not surprised if the debate heats up.
• Section 122 expiration — today. Not specifically a China tariff, but it affects the math on every US import. The Section 122 10% global surcharge hits its 150-day statutory limit on July 24, 2026. After it expires, USTR's proposed Section 301 tariffs targeting 60 countries could refill the gap at potentially higher rates — and China is already named in the industrial-overproduction investigation. If you model your China-to-US landed costs, factor in the Section 122 removal and its likely Section 301 replacement.

The corollary to all this uncertainty: the rate that's right today might be wrong in six months. The calculators on this site — electronics, apparel, furniture, machinery, plastics — are verified against the current rate database on every verification cycle. Use them to build your baseline. Subscribe to the rate change feed. And check before every large purchase order — the only thing more expensive than spending 15 minutes rechecking is finding out after the shipment lands that the rate moved.

Frequently asked questions

What's the real total tariff rate on Chinese imports in 2026?

There is no single "real rate." It depends on your product's HTS chapter. Consumer electronics (phones, laptops) often clear at 0% under the ITA with Section 301 List 4A suspended. Apparel and textiles run 16.5–29.5% (MFN 8–32% + Section 301 List 3 at 7.5%). Industrial machinery is typically 25–29.2% (MFN 0–4.2% + List 1 at 25%). Steel articles from China can exceed 50% once all four layers are applied. The rate is set by your 10-digit HTS code, not by the word "China."

How do I know if my Section 301 rate is 7.5% or 25%?

Find your 10-digit HTS code on the USTR Section 301 lists. List 1 and 2 are at 25%. List 3 is at 7.5% (reduced from 25% under the Phase One deal). List 4A is 15% but suspended. List 4B was never imposed. If your code doesn't appear on any list, you pay the MFN rate only. Most Chinese industrial goods land on Lists 1 or 2; most consumer goods on List 3. A customs broker can confirm the code-to-list mapping definitively.

Can I avoid Section 301 by shipping through a third country?

No. Section 301 applies to Chinese-origin goods regardless of the shipping route. A product made in China, shipped to Vietnam, and re-exported to the US remains Chinese origin and still pays Section 301. Changing the country of origin requires substantial transformation — a change in name, character, or use — in the third country, not repackaging or relabeling. CBP has enforced this aggressively since 2018, with transshipment audits and penalties in the millions. If someone sells you a "simple transshipment solution," walk away.

What's the difference between the MFN rate and the Section 301 surcharge?

The MFN rate is the standard US tariff applied to all WTO members without a preferential trade agreement. It's set by the Harmonized Tariff Schedule and changes slowly through legislation and trade negotiations. Section 301 is an additional duty imposed specifically on Chinese-origin goods as a trade-remedy action. It's applied on top of the MFN rate and is administered through USTR, not through the legislative tariff-setting process. The total rate = MFN + 301 + any applicable AD/CVD + Section 232 if the product is a steel or aluminum article.

Are Chinese consumer electronics still zero-duty?

Phones and laptops: yes, 0%. They're ITA products with bound zero MFN rates, and Section 301 List 4A (which would have added 15%) remains suspended. Bare PCBs, networking gear, and non-ITA electronics from China pay up to 25% on List 1. The distinction is at the 10-digit HTS level, and your product either falls under an ITA subheading or it doesn't. Check your specific code on the China → US Electronics calculator.

How does the anti-dumping deposit work in practice?

When you import a product subject to an AD order, CBP collects a cash deposit at the published margin rate for your specific exporter. For a cooperating factory with an individually determined rate, the deposit might be 3–10%. For a non-cooperating factory, it's the China-wide entity rate, which can be 40–200%+. The deposit is held by CBP and reconciled when Commerce completes its annual administrative review — a process that typically takes 2–3 years. If the final rate is lower, you get a refund with interest. If it's higher, you owe the difference. The practical advice: find a cooperating factory with a published low AD rate, and build your model around the deposit rate. If a refund comes, treat it as a bonus.

← Back to All Calculators